Working Papers

Global Dynamics of Structural Change (Job Market Paper) [Draft forthcoming]

Rodrik (2016) observes that, relative to early industrializers, later industrializers have tended to attain lower peak industry value added and employment shares, and have attained those peak shares at lower levels of development. Sectoral decomposition of industry reveals that these differences are primarily driven by differences in the size of the manufacturing sector. These facts are rationalized in an open economy with global productivity dynamics. In an open economy, global productivities are an important determinant of the structural composition of each economy. Relative to early industrializers, later industrializers begin to develop in a world with markedly different global productivities and widespread, ongoing economic growth abroad. Consequently, later industrializers develop facing different relative prices conditional upon the level of development. This leads them to attain lower peak manufacturing value added and employment shares at lower levels of development. Furthermore, different global patterns of productivity convergence in an open economy can account for the partial mitigation of this phenomenon of 'premature deindustrialization' in East and Southeast Asian countries.

Manufacturing Hierarchies and the Concentration of Industrial Activity [Draft forthcoming]

The process of industrialization is characterized by the sequential growth and then decline of successive manufacturing sub-industries. Differences between early and late developers in the extent of industrialization are predominantly due to differences in the growth of the machinery and equipment industries. Production in these industries is heavily concentrated in a small number of countries which supply these goods to the world. In an open economy model of structural change with hierarchical industrialization, there is minimal growth in these industries in most countries, other than the early industrial nations, due to relative price and comparative advantage dynamics over time. Since these industries tend to grow as a share of the economy up to high levels of development, countries which experience limited growth in these industries tend to attain lower industrial peaks at substantially lower levels of development than early industrial countries.

Working Papers in Progress

Structural Change Induced by the Growth of China

Value Added Trade with China and the Political Salience of Trade in US Congressional Campaigning
(joint with Vivek Sampathkumar)